March 18, 2021
The Bank of England holds its policy meeting
Although it has managed to hold above its 200-day moving average, which stood at
2,121, a break of that level could sap market confidence.4 per cent, while
Japan's Nikkei . Tokyo: Asian shares wallowed near six-week lows on Wednesday,
bruised by a fall in oil prices on renewed worries about a supply glut and as
investors grew nervous about the diminishing capacity of the world's major
central banks to shore up economic growth.SPX lost 1. The rise in US bond yields
came even as expectations on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook
hardly changed.5 per cent from the previous close but still down 1.3 percent in
early trade.SPNY 2..490 per cent, hitting a six-month high.N225 dropped 0. US
interest rate futures are pricing in about 10 per cent chance of a rate hike at
next week's policy review and about 60 per cent chance by December.48 per cent
to 2,127. The energy index's . I think the ECB will eventually ease in December
but given fragile sentiment, we could see more sell-off if a couple of Bank of
England policy makers say the BoE do not need further easing," said Hiroki
Kishida, fixed income analyst at Nomura Securities.02, a two-month low.265 per
cent.200 per cent while the two-year yield fell 2.0 basis points to 0.
Short-dated Japanese bond yields fell, with the five-year JGB yield slipping 2.
The 10-year US Treasuries yield rose to a three-month high of 1. The prospects
of a U.7 per cent. The yen was also dented by a Nikkei newspaper report that the
Bank of Japan plans to make its controversial negative interest rate policy the
centrepiece of future monetary easing. Investors were also unnerved by a sharp
rise in long-term global bond yields.4 per cent on the week.86-per cent slide
led declines as oil prices tumbled as much as 3 percent after both the IEA, the
world's energy watchdog, and OPEC said the global crude glut would persist for
much longer than expected. The euro dipped to $1.MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.42 yen.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan . Jeffrey Gundlach,
chief executive officer of DoubleLine China Extruder replacement parts
Capital, said on Tuesday that long-term decline in global bond yields is over
and investors are watching out for a likely fiscal expansion in the world's
major economies where monetary stimulus has reached its limits.5 basis points to
minus 0. German bond yields on Tuesday hit their highest levels since June's
shock vote by Britain to leave the European Union, "It started after the ECB
gave a cold shoulder to the idea of further easing.S.Longer-dated yields
continued to take a hit, with the 20-year yield rising 5.3 percent in early
trade, extending its decline since late last week to 4.35 per barrel in Asia, up
0.12185, a slight decline on the day and the week while the dollar also gained
to 102.MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.
On Wall Street, S&P 500 Index . The Bank of
England holds its policy meeting on Thursday and is expected to stay on hold,
after having cut interest rates to record lows and reintroduced an
asset-purchase programme last month.46 yen from Tuesday's low of 101. While the
rise in US bond yields was in part due to heavy Treasury and corporate debt
supply, it also reflected concerns about global central bank policy.
Expectations that the BOJ may try to engineer a steeper yield curve has hurt
long-term paper.752 per cent, having risen more than 20 basis points from a week
ago. rate hike by the year-end helped to underpin the dollar against other
currencies.MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .Brent
crude futures LCOc1 last stood at $47. Bond markets have come under pressure in
recent days from unease about a possible US rate hike this month, news that the
Bank of Japan is studying ways to steepen the bond yield curve and
disappointment at the lack of clear forward-action plan by the European Central
Bank at last week's meeting.0 basis point to hit a six-week low of minus 0
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March 09, 2021
Other Asian countries are even more exposed
Other Asian countries are even more exposed to rising oil prices.."Diesel prices
have jumped 16 percent in a year, but I couldn’t raise freight charges by 5 per
cent.Oil prices have gained 20 per cent since January to just shy of $80 per
barrel, a level not seen since 2014. Most damage will be done to countries like
India and Vietnam, which not only rely heavily on imports, but also where
national wealth is not yet large enough to absorb sudden increases in fuel
costs.Inflation, rising costsUS bank Morgan Stanley said this week that diesel
use contributes 10-20 per cent to cash costs for miners, while oil contributes
from 4 per cent to 50 per cent to the cost of power generation, depending on a
company’s or country’s fuel mix.With the US dollar - in which virtually all oil
is traded - also growing stronger, concerns are rising that economies will take
a hit, especially in import-reliant Asia. If I charge more, clients will use
cheaper railroads,†Savla said. Many small transport firms like his "are
struggling to pay back bank loans they took to buy trucks."It is very important
for Asia to reduce its oil dependency and increase its energy efficiency .
Anil
Mittal, who runs a container logistics company and is a member of Bombay Goods
Transport Association, said his firm was "already operating at wafer-thin
margins†before prices rose.â€Given the economic costs and its reliance on
imports, economists say it is time for Asia to limit its exposure to oil.Diesel
& LogisticsSome companies say they will pass on any higher costs to
consumers.Singapore: Oil prices are poised to break through $80 per barrel and
Asia’s demand is at a record, pushing the cost of the region’s thirst for crude
to $1 trillion this year, about twice what it was during the market lull of
2015-2016. to protect itself from future oil shocks,†RBC Capital Markets said.
Surging costs could have an inflationary effect that will hurt both consumers
and companies.The "diesel price hike has hit our business hard,†he said.In
developing economies like India, Vietnam or the Philippines, fuel costs eat up
around 8-9 Extruder screw
barrel manufacturers per cent of an average person’s salary, according to
Reuters research and figures from statistics portal Numbeo.Chryss Alfonsus
Damuy, President and Chief Executive at Philippine firm Chelsea Logistics, said
his firm could be affected by higher oil prices, but "we can pass on the effect
to consumer via price adjustments.
Ashish Savla, owner of 50-truck strong Pravin
Roadways in Mumbai, India, said diesel accounts for more than half of his
company’s expenses, and that it was difficult to pass rising expenses on to
customers."Poorer countries with limited borrowing capacity may face financing
difficulty amid higher import bills,†RBC said.China is by far Asia’s - and the
world’s - biggest importer of oil, ordering 9."A rising oil price therefore
shifts the entire cost curve higher,†it said."Asia is most vulnerable to an oil
price spike,†Canadian investment bank RBC Capital Markets warned in a note this
month, after oil prices hit their highest since November 2014.6 million barrels
per day in April..â€Others said if they burden consumers with higher costs, they
will lose clients.At current prices, this amounts to a Chinese oil import bill
of $768 million per day, $23 billion per month - a whopping $280 billion a
year.Asia-Pacific consumes more than 35 per cent of the 100 million barrels of
oil the world uses each day, according to industry data, with the region’s
global share steadily rising.Asia is also the world’s smallest oil producing
region, accounting for less than 10 per cent of output.. That compares to just
1-2 per cent in wealthy countries like Japan or Australia.Unless fuel is heavily
subsidized, households and businesses in poorer countries are also more
vulnerable to rising oil prices than they are in wealthier nations. That’s
almost 10 per cent of global consumption
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March 02, 2021
Sentiment remained weak on sustained capital outflows
However, IT firms Infosys, TCS and Wipro were among the top gainers in the
Sensex pack, buoyed by the fall in the Indian rupee&Extruder screw
barrel manufacturers39;s value.The Indian rupee on Tuesday crashed to a
fresh record low of 71.New Delhi: The benchmark BSE Sensex on Tuesday lost about
155 points to close at an over two-week low of 38,157.The Nikkei India
Manufacturing PMI stood at 51. The organisation also warned that it would have
severe impact on stocks and rupee.92, down 154.The 30-share Sensex had soared
206. Tata Consultancy Services also on Tuesday became the second Indian company
to attain a market valuation of over Rs 8 lakh crore mark following surge in its
share price.54 against the US dollar intra-day, weighing on investors
sentiment.85 and 11,602.40 per cent.12 crore on Monday, as per provisional
data.60, with the benchmark equity gauge set for its longest string of losses in
more than three months.3 in July.
Meanwhile, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)
net sold shares worth a net of Rs 21.50 crore on the BSE."Brokers said rising
global crude oil prices, which went past the USD 78 per barrel mark and plunge
in the rupee's value and sustained foreign fund outflows weighed on market
sentiment.This is its weakest closing since August 17 when it had finished at
37,947.30, after hovering between 11,496.92, falling for the fifth session in a
row following sustained foreign # fund outflows, surging global crude oil prices
and tumbling rupee against dollar.11 points in the previous four
sessions.Investors also noticed Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI) that was released on Monday and showed growth in India's
manufacturing sector moderated in August as domestic demand softened.. It had
lost 584. A widespread selling emerged in consumer durables, PSUs,
infrastructure, realty, FMCG, telecom, utilities, power, metal, auto,
healthcare, banking, oil and gas, capital goods and finance.
Sentiment remained
weak on sustained capital outflows by foreign funds after an investor lobby
group named AMRI (Asset Management Roundtable of India) said on Monday that the
immediate impact of the new Sebi KYC norms, if not amended, would flush out USD
75-billion FPI investment from the country within a short time-frame.56 in early
trade but gave up its gains following a widespread sell-off, which dragged it
down to 38,098.The gauge finally ended at an over two-week low of 38,157.7 in
August against 52. During the afternoon trade, the IT major's market
capitalisation (m-cap) stood at Rs 8,01,550.55.Asian stocks ended mixed and
Europe opened lower amid continuing concerns about stability in emerging markets
and prospects of escalating international trade disputes.13 crore and domestic
institutional investors (DIIs) also sold equities to the tune of Rs 542.49 per
cent.Among the losers were Asian Paints, SBI, Adani Ports, HUL, Coal India,
IndusInd Bank, Vedanta, Tata Motors, Hero Motocorp, Bharti Airtel, Yes Bank,
ONGC, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, M&M, ITC, Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank,
NTPC, Maruti Suzuki, PowerGrid, L&T and Sun Pharma, shedding up to
3.
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February 25, 2021
The effects of a possible oil shock
Even if an oil shock is unlikely, "you can never say there is zero risk," said
Andrew Lebow, oil market specialist for Commodity Research Group.On top of that,
oil production has branched far beyond the Middle East, said Tchilinguirian,
referring to North Sea oil exploited since the 1980s, deep-sea exploitation off
the coast of West Africa and Brazil, and the oil sands of Canada. In Germany,
households spent only 2. "In essence, the world is far better equipped to handle
oil shocks than it was in the ‘70s," explained Harry Tchilinguirian, the head of
commodity research at BNP Paribas..6 per cent of their budget on fuel in
2018.New York: The past week’s sudden surge in oil prices brought to mind the
nightmare of shortages, but it&blown
film extruder manufacturers39;s not too likely motorists will be queuing to
fill up around the world, analysts say.Many economies have taken strides away
from heavy oil consumption, thanks to transport and energy-efficient industries,
and alternative sources such as natural gas or renewable energy.Consumption in
the United States, for example, rose from 17.On top of that, "central banks
would not react to a supply shock with massive interest rate hikes to combat
rising inflationâ€, they said.
The effects of a possible oil shock, however,
"should not be underestimated," the Commerzbank economists warned.As such, a
country like Saudi Arabia would probably no longer decide to voluntarily suspend
its exports "because it could lose its status as a reliable supplier," says Alan
Gelder, refined products specialist for Wood Mackenzie.Given the slowdown in the
global economy and the abundance of crude produced worldwide, the prospect of a
USD100 barrel, for now, doesn't look too likely.. Such factors help smooth
things out in the event of a major disruption like the attack on Saudi
facilities.All it took was a September 14 strike on key oil infrastructure in
Saudi Arabia to abruptly leave the world’s main supplier producing just half its
normal amount."Currently, an oil shock would hardly have the same devastating
effects" because countries grew accustomed to such events, economists at
Commerzbank said in a note.) to help the affected economies," they said..3
million barrels per day (mbd) in 1973 to 20.The first oil crisis led to the
creation in 1974 of the International Energy Agency, which requires OECD
countries to keep in reserve the equivalent of at least 90 days of their net
imports of crude.
When oil # prices held well above USD100 a barrel between 2011
and 2014, it did not lead to economic collapse. "Especially," he added "if there
is a major war that closes the Strait of Hormuz," which a third of all petroleum
products shipped by sea pass through.5 mbd in 2018, an increase of only 18 per
cent even as the country's real gross domestic product jumped 230 per cent. Most
importantly, however, economies have reduced their dependence on oil.In 1973,
after an embargo by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
against Israel's allies in the midst of the Yom Kippur War, and in 1979, after
the Iranian revolution, crude oil prices soared in just a few months, bringing
developed economies to their knees. That sent the price of Brent crude flying 15
per cent higher in a single day.The United States, long deeply dependent upon
imports, has become a major producer and exporter thanks to shale oil and new
technologies.The price on a barrel of crude has come back down since then and by
Friday was trading around USD 65. The world has also now become less dependent
on a few huge producers. "Many economies are currently struggling with problems
anyway and the central banks have little room for manoeuvre
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February 19, 2021
He said the rising crude prices coupled with
".New Delhi: India Inc on Monday urged the government to cut excise duty on
petrol and diesel immediately, observing that rising oil prices pose a high risk
to India&Extruder replacement parts
manufacturers39;s economic growth trajectory."While cut in excise duty on
petrol and diesel may provide temporary relief to consumers, the sustainable
solution lies in the automobile fuel coming under Goods and Services Tax, which
can happen only after the Centre and states together reduce their dependence on
the fuel considerably,†Assocham Secretary General D S Rawat said. "Just
watch."Unless swift action is taken to address the situation, economic growth
will again head towards a speed breaker.87 per barrel, up 0. Asked if the
government would cut excise duty on petrol and diesel, he said he has nothing to
say on excise duty front. Today, brent touched USD 78. However, it remained
non-committal on cutting excise duty to ease the burden from rising oil
prices."With global oil prices once again spiralling upwards, the macro-economic
risks of higher inflation, higher trade deficit and pressure on balance of
payments with attended consequences for the rupee value have once again
surfaced,†Ficci President Rashesh Shah said.
He said the rising crude prices coupled with weaker rupee with cascading impact on inflation pose a big
challenge for the Indian macro picture and ironically, there is little that can
be done in the short term.5 per cent from last close. Brent crude oil prices
went past the USD 80 per barrel mark last week.Economic Affairs Secretary
Subhash Chandra Garg had said the spurt in oil prices will push up the oil
import bill by USD 25 billion to USD 50 billion under different scenarios,
adding that India spent USD 72 billion on oil imports last year. Amongst the
most immediate actions that can be taken by the government is to bring down the
excise duty on fuel,†he added.He said the weakening rupee will further add
pressure on the import bill, highlighting that there is also a risk of monetary
policy turning hawkish, which would in turn have a bearing on growth of private
investments. He said going forward, the Centre should also work with states to
bring petrol products under the GST regime.
Rather than being a revenue source
for the government, the auto fuel should drive the economic growth, Assocham
said."At a time when Indian economy is on a recovery path, rising oil prices are
again posing high risk to India's economic growth trajectory,†Shah said.In the
long run, India needs to rework its energy security and ensure that petrol and
diesel do not remain a huge revenue resource.The government said on Friday the
recent spurt in global rates is a matter of concern as it could inflate # import
bill by as much as USD 50 billion and impact current account deficit
(CAD).Industry bodies Ficci and Assocham also pitched for inclusion of
automobile fuel under the ambit of GST as a long-term solution to rising prices,
which coupled with a weakening rupee would increase the country's import bill
significantly and have a cascading impact on inflation
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February 03, 2021
The standard response has been strong words
The standard response has been strong words and no action.The Naxalites speak
in the name of the tribal poor but in reality have built up crime syndicates out
of their bases in ungoverned spaces across the country. In the circumstances, it
can only be surmised that the welfare agencies of the government, and those in
charge of the spread of infrastructure and building of the social sector, are
anything but present in regions of the country where the Maoists have entrenched
themselves. This is the worst massacre since 2010 when 70 CRPF men were mowed
down. Maoists exploit such notions of development and play on the fears of the
forest people, harnessing them to fight against the State.Evidently, the men in
uniform are not in contact with the forest-dwelling tribal people, on whose
uplift Central and state resources are expended on paper.Around 25 paramilitary
personnel were killed and nearly a dozen sustained serious injuries in the
assault on a "road-opening partyâ€.
The intelligent use of the gun needs to
supplement authentic on-the-ground efforts, not just propagandistic hype, to
push for development — which should mean roads, schools, health, banking and
postal services; not ultra-massive mining projects by major companies made
possible by displacing the tribal people, grabbing their land, cutting down
forest resources and contaminating the water supply of local streams and small
rivers.Over the years, in coordination with the state police, the CRPF — since
the force is posted in the area on a long-term basis — should have spread a
network of local intelligence in the tribal forest villages.The latter appear
opportunistic in the absence of basic human benefits reaching the people.
The
massive attack by some 300-400 Naxalite cadres, reportedly carrying
sophisticated weapons like AK-47 assault rifles, self-loading rifles (SLRs) and
under-the-barrel rocket launchers, on the CRPF in the forests near Burkapal in
the Sukma area of Chhattisgarh on Monday is Conical
twin screw barrel a grim reminder that few effective steps have been taken
to tackle the Naxalite menace in this part of India, where brazen assaults on
Central forces have become routine. This can be suicidal in an area in which
armed Naxal attacks are endemic, and on Monday it was. On March 11 this year, 12
personnel of the CRPF were ambushed in the same area, barely 20 km from
Burkapal. They cannot be tackled only through military means. Its inability to
do so reflects poorly not just on the Central force, which comes from outside,
but also on the state police which has proved to be anything but a reliable
partner, and on their state of coordination.What’s pretty glaring in the present
case is that the road-opening party stepped out to do its job in an intelligence
vacuum
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January 28, 2021
The Dutch bank said the reduction was not only
98 million barrels per day (bpd) from October levels,†ING bank said in a note.
OPEC production has fallen 1.33 million bpd to 2."WTI has not seen the same
strength (as Brent).The International Monetary Fund (IMFI) warned on Tuesday
that the global economy was slowing more than expected and that a sharp downturn
may be looming.66 per barrel at 0158 GMT, up 5 cents from their last
close.Despite the OPEC-led cuts, not all regions are in tight supply. market,â€
said ING bank.10 per barrel, up 12 cents, or 0.19 million bpd in October to
890,000 bpd in March, while output from Iran has fallen from 3. given the
relatively more bearish fundamentals in the Granulation
screw barrel U.71 million bpd due to sanctions..S.1 million barrels in the
week to April 5, to 455.
As a result, Brent and WTI crude oil futures have risen
by around 40 per cent and 30 per cent respectively since the start of the
year."The global oil market is clearly moving back towards balance thanks to
OPEC+ production cuts. The forecast cut 0.."Venezuelan oil output is estimated
to have fallen from 1.US crude stocks rose by 4.On the demand side, there are
concerns that an economic slowdown will soon hit fuel consumption.Overall, oil
markets have been tightened this year by US sanctions on oil exporters Iran and
Venezuela, as well as supply cuts by the producer club of the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers, a
group known as OPEC+.3 per cent this year, the slowest expansion since 2016.Oil
production in the United States has risen by more than 2 million barrels per day
since early 2018, to a record 12.8 million barrels, data from industry group the
American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday."US crude oil inventories remain
stubbornly high,†it added.International benchmark Brent futures were at USD
70.
Singapore: Oil prices crept higher on Wednesday, supported by supply cuts by
producer club OPEC and US sanctions against oil exporters Iran and Venezuela,
but restricted by expectations that an economic slowdown could soon dent fuel
consumption. Declines from these two exempt countries account for almost 47 per
cent of the reduction seen from OPEC,†ING said..US West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) crude oil futures were at USD 64.Both benchmarks hit five-month highs on
Tuesday, before easing on global growth worries.2 percentage point from the
IMF’s outlook in January.2 per cent, above their last settlement.The Dutch bank
said the reduction was not only down to voluntary supply cuts, which the group
started this year to prop up prices.2 million bpd.In its third downgrade since
October, the IMF said the global economy will likely grow 3
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January 21, 2021
Our base case is that global oil demand will increase
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday it expected oil markets to
be in a modest deficit from the second quarter of 2019.The number of rigs
drilling for new oil production in the United States has been falling in 2019,
and hit its lowest level since April 2018 last week, at 833 operating rigs."The
greatest downside risk to our oil price view is demand weakness on slower
economic growth.2 million bpd in supply to prop up prices.US manufacturing
output fell for a second straight month in February, in a sign that the world’s
biggest economy has been slowing down in the first quarter.3 per cent, from
their last settlement, and also not far off their 2019-high of USD 58.95 from
the previous week. A synchronized global slowdown in growth could push global
demand growth to below 1 million bpd,†Bernstein Energy said on Monday.
Our base
case is that global oil demand will increase by 1..Despite this, oil prices have
gained around a quarter since the start of the year amid US sanctions against
Iran and Venezuela, and as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia - known as OPEC+ - have pledged to
withhold 1.However, US crude oil production still increased at the start of
2019, hitting a record 12.03 per barrel at 0231 GMT, down 13 cents, or 0.Key for
the supply and demand balance will be the United States, where crude production
has soared by around 2 million bpd over the past year, thanks largely to an
onshore boom in shale formation drilling.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
futures were at USD 58..Singapore: Oil prices dipped on Monday amid concerns
that an economic downturn may dent fuel consumption, but crude markets remain
broadly supported by supply cuts led by producer group OPEC and US sanctions
against Iran and Venezuela.
As a result, Bernstein forecast an inventory draw of
37 million barrels in the first quarter for the 36 member countries of the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which comprises
most industrialised nations.Russia also said production cuts would stay in place
at least until June.32 per barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.OPEC’s de-facto leader
Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that balancing oil markets was far from done as
inventories were still high.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019.Brent crude
oil futures were at USD 67.Output has since dipped back to 12 million bpd, but
that still makes America the world’s biggest crude oil producer.1 million
barrels per day (bpd) in February, data from the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) showed.2 per cent, from their last close, but not far off
the USD 68..In Asia, Japan’s exports fell for a third straight month in February
in a sign of growing strain from slowing global demand.14 China parallel
twin screw barrel factory per barrel 2019-high reached last week
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